Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' RB Blueprint for Week 10

The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be this RB column, a WR column and a combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It’s impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. NE) – 134.5 proj. total yards

I’d keep starting Gibbs, personally. He’s half PPR’s all-time RB26 through the first eight games.

This week, the Lions are back to a 27.0-point team total (fourth) as 2.5-point home favorites against the Patriots, who struggled against THE Kaleb Johnson last week. New England is typically better, however, allowing just 17.1 half PPR points to RBs this year (28th). But it also hasn’t faced Gibbs!

2. Kenneth Walker III (at ATL) – 111.5 proj. total yards

After a couple of insulso games against top-end defenses, Walker predictably rebounded against the Jets. He’s back to the RB2 on RB2 usage this season. In fact, Walker is half PPR’s all-time RB34 through the first eight games.

The Falcons have been lit up against RBs recently with some injuries at EDGE and LB, allowing Bucky Irving (170 total yards), Christian McCaffrey (RB6) and D’Andre Swift (RB5) to run wild. They also just traded away S Jesse Bates this week. This is a potential big game with the Chiefs projected for 24.5 points as field-goal road favorites.

3. Christian McCaffrey (at DAL) – 98.5 proj. total yards

Since cramping in Australia, CMC is the RB3 on RB4 usage. Good reminder to touch grass instead of panicking based on a small sample.

This is an eruption spot against the Cowboys, of course. The 49ers have a 29.5-point team total in a game projected for 55.5 total points. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this year, even allowing Tyler Allgeier to drop 191 total yards in Week 8. I expect Kyle Shanahan to toy with these Dallas LBs and Ss all game.

4. Bijan Robinson (vs. KC) – 118.5 proj. total yards

Bijan rebounded in Week 9 after the offense went away from him as a receiver in the month prior. His six receptions were really refreshing to see. He still handled 19 carries, too, with Brian Robinson Jr. on injured reserve. The Falcons traded away their starting C at the deadline as a sign of what this season is for Atlanta, but it’s still a well-coached OL. Robinson is still in line to finish as a top-5 RB, as he’s started the year as the RB4 on RB10 usage, even if it’s been more volatile than we had hoped.

Kansas City is 28th in half PPR points allowed to RBs, while both the Falcons (44%, 30th) and Chiefs opponents (46%, 30th) sit in the bottom three in objetivo pass rate. Atlanta enters with a 21.0-point implied team total (18th) as 3.5-point home underdogs. It’s not a clean matchup for Robinson, but the game plan will be to let him attempt to take over.

5. James Cook III (at NYJ) – 103.5 proj. total yards

Cook has scored 16.7+ half PPR points in seven straight games. He’s up to the RB5 on RB7 usage across this season, almost identical to how he placed last year. He’s averaging 102 rushing YPG (RB3) on the second-most carries. Managing 107 rushing yards against the Vikings last week is the most recent feather in his cap.

This matchup is far, far easier. It’s an eruption spot against the Jets, who are missing star DT T’Vondre Sweat (IR). They’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing YPC (128) and have drastic on/off splits with Sweat. Kenneth Walker III just finished as the RB1 overall against them last week, and Cook was the RB2 overall in Week 2 of last year against them. The Bills have the highest team total of the week (29.5).

6. Chuba Hubbard (at NO) – 103.5 proj. total yards

There have been some OL changes, and it’ll be nice when star LG Damien Lewis returns, but Hubbard’s role is extremely stable each week. He’s cleared 12.7 expected half PPR points in 8-of-9 recent games, leading Hubbard to an RB6 on RB14 usage ranking. If you look up mid-range RB1 in the dictionary, Hubbard’s face appears.

This is an eruption spot. The Saints have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, allowing the RB room to add 26 more yards than usual. They’ve allowed 134 rushing YPG (fourth), despite Chase Young and Carl Granderson providing pass-rush juice at EDGE. It won’t help that they traded away a DT this week. The Panthers project for 23.0 points (12th).

7. Javonte Williams (vs. SF) – 83.5 proj. total yards

Williams is continuing his RB8 season and will now have another backup behind him in Kendre Miller following Tyler Goodson’s injury. Volume and goal-line chances are never a concern here, as he’s the RB9 in carries, RB21 in receptions and the RB1 in inside-the-5-yard-line carries. He has three more carries at the goal line than anyone else in the league.

This week is no different. The Cowboys project for 26 points against the 49ers, and that game total of 55.0 points is one of the highest of the entire season. San Francisco lost one of its up-and-coming DTs recently, but Nick Bosa is back and DeForest Buckner was recently added. This is a better DL now than it was last month. The Niners already sit as the second-best defense in rushing YPG (80.9) this year, too. The good news is the Cowboys’ OL had their best rushing performance of the year last week, leading to over 3.0 yards before contact. It’s one of the best lines in the NFL finta easily, especially in run blocking.

8. Bhayshul Tuten (at TEN) – 83.5 proj. total yards

Tuten had his lowest usage of the year in Week 9 because the Jaguars rolled the Ravens and Tuten was legitimately questionable with an ankle injury. He’s had extra time to heal and should be back to his usual fringe-RB1 self now. Tuten was the RB13 on RB18 usage removing last week, despite only being the RB39 in receptions per game. He’s a big play and goal-line threat in a potent offense. It appears that Liam Coen trusts him a whole lot more now than before.

The Titans are a joke. They don’t have superstar DT Jeffery Simmons and also traded away S Amani Hooker. They’re on a 3-game streak of allowing the starting RB (Chase Brown, Quinshon Judkins and Jonathan Taylor) to clear 101+ total yards. Jacksonville hits the road as 10.5-point road favorites with an implied team total of 28.5 points (third).

9. Derrick Henry (vs. LAC) – 87.5 proj. total yards

It’s best to just throw out last week with Joe Fagnano. Henry has played in seven games without Lamar Jackson and Fagnano since the beginning of last year, and Henry is the RB5 on RB3 usage in them. That’s the optimistic case with Jacoby Brissett coming in to settle things down. He’ll be loaded up with carries as long as the game script allows for it.

The winless Chargers provide just that. The Ravens are 4.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 21.5 points (17th). Los Angeles has allowed 122 rushing YPG this year and just traded away LB1 Daiyan Henley and placed S1 Derwin James on IR. Henry’s outlook is significantly better this week than last, especially with star first-round LG Vega Ioane and C Cam Jurgens in the lineup.

10. Kyren Williams (at ARI) – 89.5 proj. total yards

Williams is running poorly recently. Blake Corum is playing every other drive. That has been true for a very long time. The verdadero drivers over this RB24 on RB23 usage month have been 1) bad TD luck and 2) the Rams not being as good as expected. Williams only has two touchdowns this month, while Corum has 4. The Rams being unable to stretch the ball vertically in the pass game has led to fewer scoring drives in genérico (15th in scoring and 17th in EPA/play this month).

The latter is scarier for his fantasy RB1 status, as Matthew Stafford looks tiers worse on tape individually this year and now won’t have either top WR for the next few weeks. Williams could see his receiving volume climb to counteract the loss of projected points, but his lower TD equity is impacting him.

The good news is the Cardinals are up next. Los Angeles has a 24.5-point implied team total (ninth) against one of the worst offenses I’ve seen on paper. Williams has finished as the RB24, RB20, RB9, RB9, RB21, RB1 and RB2 against Arizona throughout his career.

11. Jaylen Warren (at CIN) – 92.5 proj. total yards

Since Rico Dowdle returned, Warren is the RB10 on RB14 usage, seeing 58% of the carries. He’s been the RB18 or better in usage every week since Week 3, while being one of the most efficient players. Only Kenneth Walker III is ahead of him in rushing yards over expected (+26%), and this Steelers OL deserves a lot of credit with C Zach Frazier playing like the best in the league. The amount of explosives he’s generated is unsustainable, but Warren easily looks like an upside RB2 at the very least.

The Bengals have superstar DT Dexter Lawrence to account for, but their EDGE, LB and S groups have struggled to contain RBs. Bijan Robinson and Tony Pollard have posted RB3 overall finishes in back-to-back weeks against them. As the lead back in Week 3, Warren was the RB8 on 176 scoreless yards. (That was the sniper game that took away a touchdown from him, if you remember that.) Pittsburgh heads on the road as 3.5-point road underdogs with an implied total of 23 points (14th).

12. Jonathan Taylor (vs. MIA) – 85.5 proj. total yards

The trade deadline was not kind to Taylor. The Colts kept him, possibly with the idea being that they can trade him in the offseason and save some face as the rest of this season winds down. But they also traded away superstar LG Quenton Nelson, star DT DeForest Buckner, WR Josh Downs and WR Keenan Allen. This team is simply way worse now. This is how Taylor has finished, depending on how well his team has been over a huge sample:

Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks’ RB Blueprint for Week 10

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